Google will fold Kalshi and Polymarket prediction insights into its finance-focused AI tools, giving prediction markets a prominent new platform inside Google Finance and related search features. The company confirmed late Thursday that it plans to display odds from the two online platforms, potentially exposing their forecasts to millions of users who rely on Google for financial information.
The move could dramatically expand the visibility of prediction markets at a time when both Kalshi and Polymarket are navigating intense legal and political scrutiny in the United States and abroad.
How the Integration Will Work
According to Google, the addition of “event contract” data will allow users to ask forward-looking questions directly in Search or Google Finance. For example, someone might type, “What will GDP growth be in 2025?” and see probability estimates based on market activity, along with how those expectations have shifted over time.
Google described the feature as a way to “harness the wisdom of the crowds,” though it did not clarify whether users clicking on the prediction widgets will be redirected to Kalshi’s or Polymarket’s websites. Representatives from Google, Kalshi, and Polymarket declined to answer questions about the technical or financial details of the partnership.
What Prediction Markets Claim to Be
Both Kalshi and Polymarket argue that they are not gambling platforms. Instead, they describe their offerings as contracts between private parties tied to real-world outcomes, which they say should be regulated like commodities rather than traditional betting.
That argument has failed to persuade many regulators. Several federal lawmakers and state attorneys general contend that the companies are effectively repackaging sports betting and other wagers under a different label to bypass state gambling laws.
In a September 30 letter to federal regulators, six U.S. senators warned that treating sports-related event contracts as federally regulated instruments could allow companies to sidestep licensing rules, age limits, anti–money laundering requirements, and consumer protections designed to address addiction and market integrity.
A Patchwork of Global Restrictions
Polymarket currently restricts U.S.-based users to a “view-only” mode, preventing them from placing active bets. That is expected to change soon as the company prepares to relaunch betting services in the U.S. Market access is also limited in countries such as Australia and France.
Kalshi operates under a different model. It is regulated in the United States by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and argues in court that federal oversight allows it to function nationwide, even in states that explicitly ban sports betting. That position has sparked lawsuits from state attorneys general and anti-gambling groups, with outcomes that could shape Kalshi’s future access to U.S. markets.
Manipulation and Market Integrity Concerns
Beyond legal disputes, Polymarket has faced criticism over the reliability of its data. Researchers at Columbia Business School recently published a paper suggesting that up to 25% of Polymarket’s trading volume may be artificially inflated through users rapidly buying and selling contracts with themselves.
Regulators have also raised broader concerns, especially around elections. In an appeal involving Kalshi, the CFTC warned that prediction markets could incentivize misinformation or manipulation designed to influence real-world outcomes.
Both platforms have additionally drawn fire over how they decide whether an event has officially occurred. Disputes have erupted over seemingly trivial details, such as what qualifies as a “suit” in a bet involving Ukraine’s president, or whether a CEO departure should count before a replacement is formally named. Kalshi and Polymarket denied wrongdoing in those cases.
Political Ties and Rapid Growth
The business environment for prediction markets has shifted notably under the Trump administration. Donald Trump Jr. serves as a formal adviser to both Kalshi and Polymarket, and regulators dropped a Biden-era case against Kalshi earlier this year. That decision helped pave the way for signals that Polymarket could regain access to the U.S. market.
Investor enthusiasm has surged alongside these regulatory changes. Polymarket has received funding from 1789 Capital, Intercontinental Exchange (the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange), and Founders Fund. These investments have pushed its valuation to roughly $8 billion and made its 27-year-old founder, Shayne Coplan, one of the youngest self-made billionaires, according to Bloomberg.
Kalshi, meanwhile, is valued at about $5 billion following an October funding round led by Andreessen Horowitz, Sequoia Capital, and Paradigm.
The Trump family is also entering the space directly. Truth Social announced plans for a crypto-based prediction platform called Truth Predict, further signaling how intertwined politics, finance, and prediction markets have become.
A High-Profile Bet for Google
By integrating prediction market data, Google is making a calculated bet that crowd-based forecasts can enhance its finance-focused AI tools. Whether that bet pays off may depend less on technology and more on how regulators ultimately decide to classify and control these increasingly influential platforms.
