When the US Supreme Court curtailed a major portion of former President Donald Trump’s tariff authority, many Americans wondered whether relief at the checkout counter was finally on the way. Would sneakers, furniture, appliances, and groceries suddenly become cheaper?
According to most economists, the short answer is: probably not.
This article breaks down What the Supreme Court’s decision on tariffs means for the prices you pay, why experts believe price changes will be minimal, and what could happen next.
The Court’s Ruling: What Changed?
The Supreme Court of the United States ruled that a key portion of Trump’s tariff authority was invalid. That decision effectively removed one of the administration’s primary tools for imposing broad import taxes.
However, the ruling did not eliminate all presidential authority over tariffs.
In fact, the Court specifically noted that other legal avenues remain available. These include trade laws previously used to impose duties on steel, aluminum, and other foreign goods — many of which are still in effect today.
In other words, while one lever was pulled away, several others remain within reach.
Other Tariff Tools Still Available
One of the most significant alternatives comes from Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act. Under this provision, the president can temporarily impose tariffs of up to 15% for 150 days to address balance-of-payments issues.
Following the ruling, Trump quickly signaled he would rely on that authority instead. He announced plans to implement a 10% global tariff on imports under Section 122 — a move not impacted by the Court’s decision.
This means that even though certain tariffs were struck down, similar ones could be reinstated under different legal justifications.
For consumers, that limits the potential for immediate price drops.
Will You Get a Refund?
Another big question centers around whether companies that paid overturned tariffs will receive refunds — and if so, whether those savings would trickle down to customers.
Even if businesses are eventually reimbursed, experts say it’s highly unlikely consumers will see any money back.
Retailers generally do not retroactively lower prices or issue refunds for goods already sold. If you paid more for shoes, electronics, or home goods due to tariff-related costs months ago, you’re unlikely to receive compensation.
Large retailers such as Walmart are not expected to write checks to customers to make up for earlier price increases.
Economists argue that once prices go up, they rarely move back down — unless competitive pressure or economic downturns force adjustments.
Why Prices Probably Won’t Drop
From an economic standpoint, price reductions are often harder than price increases.
Companies are typically cautious about lowering prices because:
It can signal weakness.
It cuts into profit margins.
It sets expectations for further reductions.
It creates logistical challenges in repricing goods.
Scott Lincicome of the Cato Institute has pointed out that businesses are usually reluctant to reduce prices — and the uncertainty surrounding future tariffs gives them an added reason not to.
Even if some tariff authority has been limited, companies still face potential policy shifts. Rather than adjust prices downward now, many firms may wait to see how the trade landscape evolves.
How Much Did Tariffs Cost Households?
According to estimates from the Tax Foundation, tariffs implemented in 2025 increased tax costs by roughly $1,000 per average US household.
Those added costs came through higher prices on imported goods and products made with foreign components.
However, not every company passed along the full cost of tariffs to consumers. Some businesses absorbed part of the impact to remain competitive. That means even if tariff rates fall, companies may not adjust prices because they already offset some of the burden internally.
Where Tariff Rates Stand Now
Before the Supreme Court ruling, the effective tariff rate in the US hovered around 10%. Following the decision, that rate reportedly fell to approximately 4.5%.
But that drop may be temporary.
If the administration fully implements a new 10% global tariff under Section 122 — without exemptions — the effective rate could climb back above 10%, at least during the 150-day window allowed by law.
That uncertainty makes businesses cautious about revising pricing strategies.
The Bigger Picture: Uncertainty Still Rules
One key reason prices may remain stable is that the administration has not signaled any retreat from aggressive trade policies.
While the Court limited one mechanism, officials are still determining how to reconstruct the broader tariff strategy.
For businesses, unpredictability often leads to conservative decisions. Rather than lower prices and risk having to raise them again later, many firms prefer to maintain current pricing structures.
This is central to understanding What the Supreme Court’s decision on tariffs means for the prices you pay — the ruling changes legal authority, but it doesn’t automatically reset market dynamics.
What Consumers Should Expect
Most economists agree that shoppers should not anticipate dramatic overnight price reductions.
Here’s what’s more realistic:
No immediate drop in retail prices
Continued policy shifts and trade adjustments
Potential new tariffs replacing old ones
Long-term uncertainty in global supply chains
Price changes, when they happen, tend to move gradually — not suddenly.
Final Takeaway
The Supreme Court’s ruling may appear significant on paper, but its direct impact on your wallet is likely minimal — at least for now.
Yes, one major tariff authority was struck down. But alternative legal tools remain available. New tariffs could replace old ones. Businesses are unlikely to refund past increases or slash prices quickly.
So when it comes to What the Supreme Court’s decision on tariffs means for the prices you pay, the answer is less about legal drama and more about economic reality:
Prices don’t fall as easily as they rise — especially when trade policy remains uncertain.
For consumers, patience — not immediate relief — is the more realistic expectation.
